GSCSI
System Threat
Awaiting module telemetry…

STRATOSHALOScenario Simulation

Strait of Hormuz Sector Telemetry

System Threat LevelELEVATED (FRICTION)

The simulator panels below are modeled from the selected operational scenario and war-risk premium — a what-if analysis, not live telemetry. The observed strip is real (~4-day-lagged) IMF PortWatch data.

Composite Hormuz Risk IndexModeled

Weighted blend of transit, war-risk, incidents, jamming & oil basis · feeds the global mesh (FR-14) & alert feed (FR-15)

Severity41/100
NOMINAL

Sub-signal contributions

2 of 5 signals available
  • War-risk premium58%w 45%
  • Transit drop vs baseline27%w 55%

Each sub-signal is normalized to 0–100% and weighted; missing signals are dropped and the rest re-weighted. The index is modeled (NFR-7) and debounced with hysteresis so band alerts don't flap.

Historical Playback

Live simulator

Replay curated real Hormuz disruption episodes (2019–2025) through the dashboard. Entering playback temporarily overrides the live what-if controls; exit to restore them.

Observed Transit TelemetryObserved

IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint estimates — observed, not modeled

Observed · ~4-day lagloading…

Incident TimelineObserved

Gulf seizures, attacks & naval incidents — GDELT, scoped to Hormuz

Observed · laggedloading…

Observed real-world headlines from the keyless GDELT 2.1 DOC API, scoped to the Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf and classified by incident type. Lagged by indexing cadence — context, not live telemetry. Links open at the source.

Security SignalsObserved

GPS jamming/spoofing over the Gulf + maritime advisories

Observed · aviation proxyloading…

GPS interference is keyless GPSJam aircraft data over the Gulf bounding box — an electronic-warfare proxy, not maritime-specific, and lagged by a day. Observed context, not live telemetry.

Maritime Cost SignalsModeled proxy

Freight + war-risk proxy from observed Brent & Gulf incidents

Proxy · derivedloading…

Modeled proxy — NOT a licensed benchmark. Derived server-side from observed Brent (keyless FRED) + Gulf incident pressure (keyless GDELT) to anchor the simulator's modeled VLCC rate / war-risk slider. The canonical Baltic Exchange TD3C and Lloyd's / JWLA war-risk premiums are commercially licensed and broker-quoted; wiring them is an operator-gated enhancement.

Operational Scenario

War Risk Premium

3.50%
0.1% (Standard)6.0% (Extreme Hostility)

Strait of Hormuz · Chokepoint MapModeled · curated geo

Transit corridor, traffic-separation lanes + modeled anchorage backlog

outbound inbound queue

Chokepoint position is keyless IMF PortWatch; corridor + TSS lanes are a curated reference overlay. The anchorage glow is a MODELED backlog of ~378 stranded vessels distributed across 3 holding zones (scaled by the simulator) — not live AIS, which is out of scope.

Energy Infrastructure

14.8MBD

Daily Throughput Volume

BYPASS STATUS: 42% of the 5.5 MBD deficit absorbable via bypass pipelines — 3.2 MBD stranded. See Route Resilience below.

Maritime Backlog

VLCC Spot Rate$332k/day
378Vessels Stranded
Cape of Good Hope+12.5 Days Transit
War Risk Prem.3.50% Hull Val

Macro Currency Impact

Brent Crude · modeled
$89.00
obs spot…
USD / JPY
163.45
Observed Spot · Marketloading…

Fetching observed spot prices…

VULNERABILITY NOTE:The Japanese Yen (JPY) exhibits hyper-sensitivity to Hormuz disruption due to Japan's ~90% reliance on Middle Eastern crude and LNG imports.

Alternative-Route ResilienceModeled · reference

Bypass-pipeline spare capacity vs the modeled Hormuz throughput deficit

Disruption absorbable42%
Deficit5.5MBD lost
Bypass spare2.3MBD
Residual3.2MBD stranded
3.2 MBD cannot be routed around Hormuz.
Habshan–Fujairah (ADCOP)UAE · Fujairah · Gulf of Oman
0.3 MBDspare
flow 1.5 MBD · 83% utilnameplate 1.8 MBD
East–West (Petroline)Saudi Arabia · Yanbu · Red Sea
2.0 MBDspare
flow 3.0 MBD · 60% utilnameplate 5.0 MBD

Reference baseline ~20.3 MBD Hormuz throughput vs the modeled scenario volume. Bypass nameplate 6.8 MBD total; utilization figures are curated reference estimates (EIA / operators), not a live feed — a live EIA spare-capacity anchor is deferred.

Most Hormuz-Exposed Countries

Reference

Exposure scores are modeled from curated EIA/IEA chokepoint-dependence estimates (share of seaborne crude + LNG that transits Hormuz), not a live feed. Select a country to open its profile on the global dashboard.

Chokepoint Research

External Links